2019 Oscars Predictions Part 2

Let’s continue by predicting the major awards of the evening!

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

·         Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick

·         Christopher Robin - Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould

·         First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm

·         Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk

·         Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy

Who I’d vote for: Ready Player One – Holy cow, what a visual feast! I’m a huge fan of 3D when it’s done right and boy did Mr. Spielberg and Dreamworks deliver. The entire film is practically visual effects. That lifts it above the excellent work of the other nominees.

Who will win: Avengers: Infinity War – The #1 global box office film of 2018 (and all-time opening weekend record-holder) should have an Oscar too, right? If the voters want to honor the major earners of the year then they have to vote Infinity War for “Best Visual Effects” as this is the only chance to do so. Seamlessly combining all the different worlds within the Marvel Cinematic Universe makes a win over Ready Player One and First Man justifiable. Embed from Getty Images

Best Animated Feature Film

·         Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle

·         Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson

·         Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda, Yuichiro Saito

·         Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer

·         Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller

Who I’d vote for: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Spider-Verse was truly a one-of-a-kind movie going experience and I didn’t even have to see it in 3D. Most of the scenes felt like 3D anyway with the unique style of animation meant to immerse the viewer into the comic book cells; which perfectly complemented the film’s message that anyone could be under the mask. Spider-Verse finds itself on my Top 10 Overall Films of 2018 so this one’s a no-brainer.

Who will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – It has won every precursor there is; I mean every single one. Even with two fantastic Disney sequels and a Wes Anderson gem in the running, Spider-Verse will run away with this statuette. Not only is the animation groundbreaking, the story and the characters within that story are equally monumental. A win here for Lord/Miller almost makes up for the Oscar snub of The Lego Movie in 2014. Embed from Getty Images

Best Adapted Screenplay

·         A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper

·         The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

·         BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

·         If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins

·         Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty

Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – I had a great amount of apprehension when I heard there would be yet another remake of A Star Is Born. The original tale has been done to death with the 3 previous films of the same name and countless other imitators. But the screenwriters were able to breathe modern life into this century-old story and gave us the best monologue of the year in Sam Elliott’s ode to his brother while consoling Ali. “All any artist can offer the world is how they see those twelve notes. That’s it. He loved how you see them.”

Who will win: BlacKkKlansman – Beale Street has won some of the pre-cursors but it is not nominated for Best Picture. I believe that gives the edge to BlacKkKlansman which is coming off a victory at the BAFTA awards. The only other Best Picture nominee in this category is A Star Is Born but I envision the Academy gravitating towards the script dealing with race relations instead of the script dealing with mental health and addiction. This would also mark the first Oscar win for Spike Lee, which could be ratings gold resulting in one of the most memorable acceptance speeches in Academy history.

Best Original Screenplay

·         The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara

·         First Reformed – Paul Schrader

·         Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly

·         Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

·         Vice – Adam McKay

Who I’d vote for: The Favourite – No other film radiates wit and intelligence more than The Favourite. On the surface, the film could have been another boring period piece about yet another privileged Queen. Yet, it turns into a delightful commentary on female empowerment when only a handful of women in the world had any power at all. All three principal ladies gain and lose influence as they navigate their moral boundaries for self-preservation.

Who will win – The Favourite –Roma and Vice should be considered legitimate contenders but they will win other awards so this will be another case of spreading the love. Green Book was looking like the front-runner but controversial remarks made by one of its writers have seriously damaged its chances at this award, as well as Best Picture. The Favourite had the most complex and innovative script of the bunch; the odds should be in their favour. Embed from Getty Images

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

·         Mahershala Ali – Green Book

·         Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman

·         Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

·         Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

·         Sam Rockwell - Vice

Who I’d vote for: Sam Elliott – This one is really a coin flip between Ali and Elliott but if forced to choose I would pick Elliott. His portrayal of the man who took a backseat to his younger brother is a masterclass in mixing vulnerability with tough man bravado. I sure would love to hear that iconic voice who lamented about “The Dude” give an acceptance speech this Sunday. Embed from Getty Images

Who will win: Mahershala Ali – All signs point to Ali winning his second Oscar in the past three years. He took home the SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA already. Nothing is stopping this freight train. It’s exciting to see what’s on the horizon for Ali. Here’s my prediction…he will be taking home more hardware next awards season for his role in HBO’s “True Detective”. Add an Emmy to the mantle.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

·         Amy Adams - Vice

·         Marina de Tavira - Roma

·         Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

·         Emma Stone – The Favourite

·         Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Who I’d vote for: Rachel Weisz – Even though this is a crop of stellar performances, I only have one question. Can I vote for Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place? She won the SAG but somehow was snubbed come Oscar announcements. Weisz lands at #2 on my list of supporting actresses this year behind Blunt while King (#4), Stone (#5) and Adams (#6) trail right behind. All three women of The Favourite are mesmerizing but Weisz’s “smartest lady in the room” edges out the rest.

Who will win: Regina King – The supporting actress accolades have been all over the place with Blunt (SAG), Weisz (BAFTA), and King (Critics Choice/Golden Globe) each winning respective awards. The distinguishing factor here is that whenever King is nominated, she wins. She is a formidable power player in town who can also produce and direct. People are lining up to work with her and it will show in this year’s voting. Expect to see King accept an Oscar to keep her Emmy collection company. Embed from Getty Images

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

·         Christian Bale - Vice

·         Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

·         Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

·         Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

·         Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Who I’d vote for: Christian Bale – I’ve talked to plenty of people who were shocked to learn the identity of the man behind the Dick Cheney makeup. Bale gives an unmatched performance much like Gary Oldman did last year (Darkest Hour). Some could argue his performance was greatly enhanced by the hair/makeup team; which I cannot deny. However, Bale nails Cheney’s devilish smirk and his unmistakable voice and swagger. Anybody with a brain in their skull should vote for Bale.

Who will win: Rami Malek – Unfortunately, many people do not vote with their brains. Malek will win because people will vote with their hearts. Bale had been winning all the pre-cursors until he shot himself in the foot by thanking Satan in one of his acceptance speeches. It was a sly joke at the expense of the man he portrayed but when compared to Malek’s promotion of Freddie Mercury’s positivity and inclusiveness, you start to comprehend the shift in opinions. While I would rank every other actor’s performance in this category above Malek, I understand why people are drawn to Malek, the person.   Embed from Getty Images

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

·         Yalitza Aparicio - Roma

·         Glenn Close – The Wife

·         Olivia Colman - The Favourite

·         Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

·         Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Who I’d vote for: Glenn Close – There are two particular scenes in The Wife that are beautiful and devastating at the same time. Each scene is an appropriate close-up of the renowned actress where she conveys every thought in her head without uttering a single word. It’s the type of performance that makes an actor a legend…if they aren’t one already.

Who will win: Glenn Close – This will be Close’s seventh attempt at winning her ever elusive Oscar as her previous tries sadly came up short. I mean, come on! Mo’Nique has an Oscar and Glenn Close doesn’t?!? The voters are well aware of this and will reward her with a long overdue Oscar. Sometimes this is done at the wrong time for the wrong performance but not in this case. Lady Gaga will get her Oscar for “Best Song” so I don’t see her winning “Best Actress”. Colman has a chance at an upset but at the end of the day the voters will show the respect due to the unparalleled Glenn Close.  Embed from Getty Images

Best Achievement in Directing

·         Alfonso Cuaron - Roma

·         Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

·         Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

·         Adam McKay - Vice

·         Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

Who I’d vote for: Alfonso Cuaron – Can you give an Oscar for “Best Blocking” (choreographing actor’s movements)? Yes, yes you can. It’s called “Best Director”. Cuaron is the master of maneuvering his actors and cameras seamlessly. I was enthralled by each and every camera movement that effortlessly matched the performers’ actions. He also wrought an Oscar nominated performance from his lead actress who had never even been in a film before. I really wish Damien Chazelle (First Man), John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) and Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns) were representatives in this category but Cuaron would still get my vote.

Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron – Here is another lock of the evening. All the pre-cursors have gone his way and the biggest indicator of all for “Best Director” is the winner of the Directors Guild Award; which Cuaron indeed won. While I don’t think Roma is quite the masterpiece that Gravity is, it is awfully close. Cuaron will win his second trophy for “Best Director” (Gravity) and could win as many as four Oscars before the night is through. Viva la Mexico!

Best Motion Picture of the Year

·         Black Panther: Kevin Feige

·         BlacKkKlansman: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee

·         Bohemian Rhapsody: Graham King

·         The Favourite: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos

·         Green Book: Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga

·         Roma: Gabriela Rodriguez, Alfonso Cuaron

·         A Star Is Born: Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor

·         Vice: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, Kevin Messick

Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – Cooper’s directorial debut is the only film from the “Best Picture” nominees to make my Top 10 of 2018 so it obviously gets my vote. Combine incredible original music (RECORDED LIVE) with profoundly human performances and you get a modern day classic. I wish A Star Is Born could join One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) and A Beautiful Mind (2001) as a “Best Picture” winner but I don’t see it happening. Mental health and addiction are crises many people do not want to talk about but the discussion is absolutely necessary.

Who will win: Roma – While President Trump does whatever he can to build a wall along our Mexican border, Hollywood will send a resilient message to Washington, D.C. by giving the industry’s top honor to a foreign language film for the first time in Oscar history. The cherry on top is that it will be a film from Mexico. While its win will be largely symbolic, the film itself is “Best Picture”-worthy due to the technical accomplishments behind the camera and the heart-warming account of a selfless woman so brilliantly portrayed by first-time film actress Yalitza Aparicio. The film opened my eyes to a culture I knew very little about; hopefully the rest of America can follow suit. Embed from Getty Images

WRAP-UP

The night will mostly belong to Alfonso Cuaron and Roma but as the Academy shifts toward rewarding more audience-pleasing films we will see a more balanced representation between prestige and popcorn. Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody will undoubtedly go home with little gold men and with the nominations of the critically disliked Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody for “Best Picture”, it made me wonder what other previous “Best Picture” nominees were also unpopular with the critics. I had to go back nearly a decade to find two comparable films: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and The Blind Side (2009). When averaging the critics’ scores from Rotten Tomatoes and MetaCritic and the audience scores from Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB.com, I came up with this list of the 2018 “Best Picture” Nominees in order of best average score (out of 100) and compared the results to the two most recent nominees that weren’t well received by the critics.

	Film	RottenTomatoes	MetaCritic	RT Audience	IMBD	AVG
1	Roma	96	96	75	79	86.50
2	Black Panther	97	88	79	74	84.50
3	A Star Is Born	90	88	80	79	84.25
4	BlacKkKlansman	95	83	82	75	83.75
5	The Favourite	94	90	64	78	81.50
6	Green Book	79	69	94	83	81.25
7	Bohemian Rhapsody	61	49	88	82	70.00
8	Vice	66	61	56	72	63.75
2009	The Blind Side	66	53	85	77	70.25
2011	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	46	46	61	69	55.50

The top six films come out looking respectable (all besting 81/100) even though The Favourite is dragged down by audience scores and Green Book by critics. It’s interesting how well Bohemian Rhapsody’s numbers (70.00) match up with The Blind Side (70.25); both films were loved by audiences but torn apart by critics. But it’s Vice that comes away as the true loser here (63.75) becoming the worst “Best Picture” nominee since Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (55.50) bringing into question the validity of its nomination. This data supports the theory that the Academy is moving toward balancing the blockbuster nominations with the art-house films - all the while trying to stay socially and politically woke, as it were. So sit back, relax, and enjoy this pivotal moment in the Academy’s history – the 91^st Oscars. At the very least – Queen will, Queen will, rock you!

Written by:  Scott Schreiber

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