The 91st annual
Academy Awards has had a rough lead-up to the ceremony filled with indecision.
There have been many judgment reversals along the way including the “Best
Popular Film” shoot-down, the Kevin Hart hosting debacle and not televising the
“Best Song” performances and four of the technical categories. The latter
prompted an official letter of protest from Oscar-winning A-Listers including
Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino and Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki (3-time winner for
“Best Cinematography” – one category that was slated to be cut).
Through all of this, it is the clear that the Academy (and to an extent ABC since they are televising the event) is putting public opinion first. After the disastrous ratings from last year’s Oscar telecast they are crumbling to any public criticism. So we will more than likely get another 4 hour show where the winners will list off a bunch of names and bore us to tears. Thank God we still get the “Best Song” performances and an opening treat from Queen and Adam Lambert. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performing “Shallow” and a special appearance by Better Midler on Mary Poppins Returns’ “The Place Where Lost Things Go” are sure to be highlights of the evening. And I’m sure there will be a couple of surprises; as of now “All the Stars” from Black Panther has not been announced as one of the performances but don’t be surprised if you see Kendrick Lamar and SZA this Sunday night.
To complement the Academy’s emphasis on pleasing the public, this year’s crop of Oscar nominees got a little more box office friendly. The domestic box office champ of 2018, Black Panther, became the first superhero movie ever to be nominated for “Best Picture” while it was joined by Bohemian Rhapsody, a rousing crowd-pleaser /moneymaker but critical failure (61% on RottenTomatoes.com). As the Academy’s diversity grows, so too will the types of films we see nominated for Oscars. I believe 2018 is the turning point issuing in a new age of balance where blockbusters will be as accepted on the Oscar stage as the prestige films. Perhaps a Marvel movie will never win “Best Picture” but now they’ve at least got a seat at the table.
PREDICTIONS
Vice and their
performances are largely fueled by their hair and makeup team. Makeup artist
Greg Cannom already has three Oscar wins in his career for Dracula, Mrs. Doubtfire
and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
His work on Vice begs the voters to
make it number four.Through all of this, it is the clear that the Academy (and to an extent ABC since they are televising the event) is putting public opinion first. After the disastrous ratings from last year’s Oscar telecast they are crumbling to any public criticism. So we will more than likely get another 4 hour show where the winners will list off a bunch of names and bore us to tears. Thank God we still get the “Best Song” performances and an opening treat from Queen and Adam Lambert. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performing “Shallow” and a special appearance by Better Midler on Mary Poppins Returns’ “The Place Where Lost Things Go” are sure to be highlights of the evening. And I’m sure there will be a couple of surprises; as of now “All the Stars” from Black Panther has not been announced as one of the performances but don’t be surprised if you see Kendrick Lamar and SZA this Sunday night.
To complement the Academy’s emphasis on pleasing the public, this year’s crop of Oscar nominees got a little more box office friendly. The domestic box office champ of 2018, Black Panther, became the first superhero movie ever to be nominated for “Best Picture” while it was joined by Bohemian Rhapsody, a rousing crowd-pleaser /moneymaker but critical failure (61% on RottenTomatoes.com). As the Academy’s diversity grows, so too will the types of films we see nominated for Oscars. I believe 2018 is the turning point issuing in a new age of balance where blockbusters will be as accepted on the Oscar stage as the prestige films. Perhaps a Marvel movie will never win “Best Picture” but now they’ve at least got a seat at the table.
PREDICTIONS
Now let’s get to the fun part:
Predictions! There are more coin flips and highly contested categories than
usual this year but there will still be a fair share of locks. Part One will
cover the short films, documentary, foreign, design, and sound awards. Part Two
will cover all the major awards including acting, directing and “Best Picture”.
Come along and pay close attention if you want to win your office Oscar pool
this year…
Best Animated Short Film – Bao: first short film at Pixar directed by a femaleEmbed from Getty Images
Best Live Action Short Film – Marguerite: sweet story separates from the other “kids in peril” plotlines
Best Documentary Short Subject –A Night at the Garden: American fascism in 1939 eerily mirrors today
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo: innovative camerawork, incredible feat by extraordinary manEmbed from Getty Images
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year – Roma: breathtaking love letter to Mexico
Best Animated Short Film – Bao: first short film at Pixar directed by a femaleEmbed from Getty Images
Best Live Action Short Film – Marguerite: sweet story separates from the other “kids in peril” plotlines
Best Documentary Short Subject –A Night at the Garden: American fascism in 1939 eerily mirrors today
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo: innovative camerawork, incredible feat by extraordinary manEmbed from Getty Images
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year – Roma: breathtaking love letter to Mexico
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
·
Border – Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer
Border – Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer
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Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
·
Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaneyEmbed from Getty Images
Who I’d vote for: Vice – Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is an astonishing accomplishment. If he wins his second Oscar of his career this Sunday, I guarantee you he will mention his 200 hours in the makeup chair and appreciatively thank his hair and makeup team. I just copied and pasted this from last year (Darkest Hour/Gary Oldman) and changed the names. It’s like déjà vu.
– It’s hard to deny this one. Bale disappears into Cheney; Carell into Rumsfeld; Perry into Powell; and so on and so on. Some of the best acting of the year can be seen in
Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaneyEmbed from Getty Images
Who I’d vote for: Vice – Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is an astonishing accomplishment. If he wins his second Oscar of his career this Sunday, I guarantee you he will mention his 200 hours in the makeup chair and appreciatively thank his hair and makeup team. I just copied and pasted this from last year (Darkest Hour/Gary Oldman) and changed the names. It’s like déjà vu.
– It’s hard to deny this one. Bale disappears into Cheney; Carell into Rumsfeld; Perry into Powell; and so on and so on. Some of the best acting of the year can be seen in
Best Achievement in Costume Design
·
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
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The Favourite – Sandy Powell
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
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Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
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Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Who I’d vote for: Black Panther – The Marvel movie’s costumes are the most unique of the nominated bunch. The wardrobes in the other four films are fantastic but I feel like we’ve seen them before in other period pieces and westerns of the past. The addition of having to clothe hundreds of extras only adds to this distinctive accomplishment of Ruth E. Carter and her team.
Who will win: Black Panther – The two period pieces (The Favourite & Mary Queen of Scots) will cancel each other out. Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner and now 14-time nominee) will also cancel herself out with her dual nominations. That leaves 3-time nominees Mary Zophres & Ruth E. Carter. I believe Carter edges out the competition earning her first Oscar win as the Academy will pounce on the most obvious (and deserving) chance to reward Black Panther a statuette.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Who I’d vote for: Black Panther – The Marvel movie’s costumes are the most unique of the nominated bunch. The wardrobes in the other four films are fantastic but I feel like we’ve seen them before in other period pieces and westerns of the past. The addition of having to clothe hundreds of extras only adds to this distinctive accomplishment of Ruth E. Carter and her team.
Who will win: Black Panther – The two period pieces (The Favourite & Mary Queen of Scots) will cancel each other out. Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner and now 14-time nominee) will also cancel herself out with her dual nominations. That leaves 3-time nominees Mary Zophres & Ruth E. Carter. I believe Carter edges out the competition earning her first Oscar win as the Academy will pounce on the most obvious (and deserving) chance to reward Black Panther a statuette.
Best Achievement in Production Design
·
Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart
Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart
·
The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
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First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
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Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
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Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez
Who I’d vote for: First Man – You could argue a point for all five nominees here; all teams built stunningly different worlds. Ultimately, I’m drawn to the realism that Crowley and Lucas crafted for Damien Chazelle’s story of primitive space flight and the intrepid astronauts who dared take on the unknown challenges of said space exploration. You feel like you’re in Neil Armstrong’s space boots every step of the way, especially for that one giant leap.
Who will win: Black Panther – This is where the Academy might throw The Favourite a bone. With ten nominations, Yorgos Lanthimos’s period piece is tied for the most nominations this year (Roma) but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went home empty-handed at the end of the night. Again, I believe the voters are eager to reward Black Panther with some hardware but they won’t vote for a Marvel movie to win Best Picture. Expect to see the box office juggernaut take home multiple design awards including Production Design.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez
Who I’d vote for: First Man – You could argue a point for all five nominees here; all teams built stunningly different worlds. Ultimately, I’m drawn to the realism that Crowley and Lucas crafted for Damien Chazelle’s story of primitive space flight and the intrepid astronauts who dared take on the unknown challenges of said space exploration. You feel like you’re in Neil Armstrong’s space boots every step of the way, especially for that one giant leap.
Who will win: Black Panther – This is where the Academy might throw The Favourite a bone. With ten nominations, Yorgos Lanthimos’s period piece is tied for the most nominations this year (Roma) but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went home empty-handed at the end of the night. Again, I believe the voters are eager to reward Black Panther with some hardware but they won’t vote for a Marvel movie to win Best Picture. Expect to see the box office juggernaut take home multiple design awards including Production Design.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
·
Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson
Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson
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BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard
BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard
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If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
·
Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat
Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat
·
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman Embed from Getty Images
Who I’d vote for: Mary Poppins Returns – What a daunting challenge it had to be to make a sequel to the 54-year-old classic Mary Poppins. The enormous pressure on the shoulders of director Rob Marshall had to be lifted significantly when he heard Marc Shaiman’s original score. The spirit of the original film is brilliantly captured and duplicated through his magical re-interpretation.
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman – Mary Poppins Returns seems like the obvious choice but this is the one category where I’m going out on a limb. I’m tempted to pick Black Panther, as well, since ABC has been using the film’s score to promote the Oscar telecast and Ludwig Goransson’s career is skyrocketing after his Grammy-winning collaboration with Childish Gambino. Aside from a possible win for screenplay, BlacKkKlansman will otherwise be shut out. Terence Blanchard is Spike Lee’s longtime colleague, composing nearly all of Lee’s films including brilliant scores for Malcolm X and 25th Hour. Shockingly, this is Blanchard’s first Oscar nomination and with a little luck, his first win.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman Embed from Getty Images
Who I’d vote for: Mary Poppins Returns – What a daunting challenge it had to be to make a sequel to the 54-year-old classic Mary Poppins. The enormous pressure on the shoulders of director Rob Marshall had to be lifted significantly when he heard Marc Shaiman’s original score. The spirit of the original film is brilliantly captured and duplicated through his magical re-interpretation.
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman – Mary Poppins Returns seems like the obvious choice but this is the one category where I’m going out on a limb. I’m tempted to pick Black Panther, as well, since ABC has been using the film’s score to promote the Oscar telecast and Ludwig Goransson’s career is skyrocketing after his Grammy-winning collaboration with Childish Gambino. Aside from a possible win for screenplay, BlacKkKlansman will otherwise be shut out. Terence Blanchard is Spike Lee’s longtime colleague, composing nearly all of Lee’s films including brilliant scores for Malcolm X and 25th Hour. Shockingly, this is Blanchard’s first Oscar nomination and with a little luck, his first win.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
·
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- David Rawlings, Gillian Welch “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- David Rawlings, Gillian Welch “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
·
Black Panther – Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Anthony Tiffith “All the Stars”
Black Panther – Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Anthony Tiffith “All the Stars”
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Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
·
RBG – Diane Warren “I’ll Fight”
RBG – Diane Warren “I’ll Fight”
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A Star Is Born – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt “Shallow”
A Star Is Born – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt “Shallow”
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – As a rule I don’t respect the “credit songs” as much as I do the songs that were actually used to help tell the story. That disqualifies the entries of Black Panther & RGB from the race. I loved the songs from Mary Poppins Returns as they captured the essence of the original classic but there really is no competition here. Not only is “Shallow” an earworm but it represents the pivotal moment in Ali and Jackson’s relationship when Ali steps forward into the spotlight for the very first time. I cannot wait to see Gaga and Cooper perform this during the telecast. Embed from Getty Images
Who will win: A Star Is Born – Hollywood will reward Lady Gaga an Oscar…but not for acting just yet. Sadly, I see this as the only win of the night for A Star Is Born and it is where it deserves it the most. How do you make a fourth iteration of a film and still keep it fresh and appealing to audiences? You create incredible original music and ground it with deeply human performances. Mission accomplished: consider it a 100% lock to win “Best Song”; you can go ahead and bet your life savings.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
·
Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin
Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin
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Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali
Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali
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Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, Jose Antonio Garcia
Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, Jose Antonio Garcia
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A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – I’m shocked at myself for not saying First Man but I would vote for the film that captured live music like no other this year. As an avid concert goer (I’m a proud attendee of the first three Bonnaroo Music Festivals and countless other concerts), I felt A Star Is Born’s musical performances were exceptionally genuine while Bohemian Rhapsody’s karaoke approach felt staged and overblown. A Star Is Born recorded their performances live instead of adding the songs in later during post-production like Rhapsody. I’ll take genuine over fabricated any day of the week.
Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody – It won Best Sound at the BAFTAs which is really the only precursor for the sound categories since the AMPS (Association of Motion Picture Sound) has not announced their winner yet. As I’ve mentioned, this year Hollywood wants to honor more box office smashes than they have in the past. Also, eight-time Oscar nominee Paul Massey has never won. This is probably one of multiple trophies Rhapsody takes home though I believe it is more deserving for sound editing.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – I’m shocked at myself for not saying First Man but I would vote for the film that captured live music like no other this year. As an avid concert goer (I’m a proud attendee of the first three Bonnaroo Music Festivals and countless other concerts), I felt A Star Is Born’s musical performances were exceptionally genuine while Bohemian Rhapsody’s karaoke approach felt staged and overblown. A Star Is Born recorded their performances live instead of adding the songs in later during post-production like Rhapsody. I’ll take genuine over fabricated any day of the week.
Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody – It won Best Sound at the BAFTAs which is really the only precursor for the sound categories since the AMPS (Association of Motion Picture Sound) has not announced their winner yet. As I’ve mentioned, this year Hollywood wants to honor more box office smashes than they have in the past. Also, eight-time Oscar nominee Paul Massey has never won. This is probably one of multiple trophies Rhapsody takes home though I believe it is more deserving for sound editing.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
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Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
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Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone
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First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred latrou Morgan
First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred latrou Morgan
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A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
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Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Who I’d vote for: First Man – While I would be tempted to vote for A Quiet Place (since this is its sole nomination), First Man’s sound design is second to none. The opening scene alone is enough mastery to elicit an Oscar win for sound editing. You feel like you are being blasted into the atmosphere thanks to the incredible work of Chazelle’s sound team. With Whiplash, La La Land and now First Man it is very clear that sound design is the essential glue of his movies.
Who will win: First Man – This could go to Bohemian Rhapsody or even A Quiet Place (my not so secret wish) but I believe the voters will again spread the love and not deny the brilliance of First Man’s sound design. The Academy will also jump at the chance to reward a duel female editing team. It’s a crime First Man was not nominated for Best Picture so perhaps this is a consolation prize.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
·
BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
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Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
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The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
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Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
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Vice – Hank Corwin
Who I’d vote for: The Favourite- My top five films for editing in 2018 did not make the Academy’s list this year. They Shall Not Grow Old, First Man and Mission Impossible: Fallout are just of few of the films that should be here instead of some of the nominees. Out of the five nominated films, though, The Favourite is the best film therefore deserves the editing trophy. It had the potential to be a stereotypical stuffy period piece but turned out to be something entirely different due to the adept pacing .
Who will win: Vice – Of the five nominees, Vice has the most “flashy” editing. It seems the voters love the combination of Adam McKay and Hank Corwin’s storytelling styles having previously nominated both men for The Big Short. Corwin is the king of editing polarizing films (Natural Born Killers, Nixon, The Tree of Life). Vice won the BAFTA for Best Editing so I’d put my money on Corwin.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Vice – Hank Corwin
Who I’d vote for: The Favourite- My top five films for editing in 2018 did not make the Academy’s list this year. They Shall Not Grow Old, First Man and Mission Impossible: Fallout are just of few of the films that should be here instead of some of the nominees. Out of the five nominated films, though, The Favourite is the best film therefore deserves the editing trophy. It had the potential to be a stereotypical stuffy period piece but turned out to be something entirely different due to the adept pacing .
Who will win: Vice – Of the five nominees, Vice has the most “flashy” editing. It seems the voters love the combination of Adam McKay and Hank Corwin’s storytelling styles having previously nominated both men for The Big Short. Corwin is the king of editing polarizing films (Natural Born Killers, Nixon, The Tree of Life). Vice won the BAFTA for Best Editing so I’d put my money on Corwin.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
·
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
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Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
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A Star Is Born – Matty Libatique
A Star Is Born – Matty Libatique
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Cold War – Lukasz Zal
Who I’d vote for: Roma – I haven’t had the fortune of seeing Cold War yet but Roma’s camerawork would be extremely hard to beat. Every shot was choreographed so meticulously that I found myself rewinding to dissect each movement. While I loved the deep reds of A Star Is Born and the skillful use of space in The Favourite, there is no denying the brilliant cinematography of Cuaron’s Roma.
Who will win: Roma– Not a question. Hand it over. Gorgeous black-and-white cinematography is something the Academy has normally lapped up over the more recent years (Schindler’s List, The Artist) since its usage has dwindled to near non-existence. If there happens to be an upset, it would probably be the other black-and-white nominee (Cold War) to do the honors. But expect to see Alfonso Cuaron walk up to the stage several times this Sunday, starting with this award.
Cold War – Lukasz Zal
Who I’d vote for: Roma – I haven’t had the fortune of seeing Cold War yet but Roma’s camerawork would be extremely hard to beat. Every shot was choreographed so meticulously that I found myself rewinding to dissect each movement. While I loved the deep reds of A Star Is Born and the skillful use of space in The Favourite, there is no denying the brilliant cinematography of Cuaron’s Roma.
Who will win: Roma– Not a question. Hand it over. Gorgeous black-and-white cinematography is something the Academy has normally lapped up over the more recent years (Schindler’s List, The Artist) since its usage has dwindled to near non-existence. If there happens to be an upset, it would probably be the other black-and-white nominee (Cold War) to do the honors. But expect to see Alfonso Cuaron walk up to the stage several times this Sunday, starting with this award.
Check out 2019 Oscar Predictions: Part Two - The
Major Awards!
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