Oscars 2017: What the Night Will Bring
There are two major questions heading into Sunday night’s
telecast of the 89th Academy Awards.
(1) Can La La Land make history by winning the
most statuettes ever in one night? The modern day musical has already tied the
record for most nominations by a single film with 14; joining All About Eve
(1950) and Titanic (1997). Now can it break the record of 11 wins held by
Ben-Hur (1959), Titanic (1997) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the
King (2003)?
(2) What kind of statement will Hollywood make following
last year’s #OscarsSoWhite controversy coupled with this year’s political
turmoil? The Academy has nominated 7 non-white actors this year in what seems
to be a direct answer to the previous two years’ glaring omissions. My hope is
that the public won’t see this as propaganda because each nominee deserves to
be there. Also, President Trump’s travel ban has prevented several foreign
filmmakers from being able to attend the night’s festivities. Will the Academy
take a defiant stand and award these nominees in absentee?
In my predictions here, I hope to answer these questions and
if nothing else help you win your office Oscar pool. Please note that I have
seen every film nominated aside from the foreign and short films. Let’s start
with the technical awards and build our way up to the big one: Best Picture.
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Who I
would vote for: Doctor Strange
I would be
very tempted to vote for Kubo due to
the monumental effort it took to craft this stop motion masterpiece but
ultimately Doctor Strange wins out. The psychedelic M.C. Escher inspired action
sequences are too incredible to deny.
Who will
win: The Jungle Book
This entire
film is practically filmed with a little boy in front of a green screen and you
can’t even tell. This technical achievement also led to $1 billion in worldwide
ticket sales. This is the category where the Academy rewards the blockbuster.
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Who I
would vote for: Deepwater Horizon
Upon walking
out of the theater after seeing Deepwater
Horizon the first thing I said was, “Wow, that’s going to win for Best
Sound.” Seeing it in an IMAX Theater certainly enhanced the experience but the
special attention to detail of every little pop and ping was extraordinary.
Who will
win: Hacksaw Ridge
This could
go to Arrival or La La Land but I believe this will be Hacksaw Ridge’s consolation prize after losing in every other
category it’s nominated for. The sound effects during the battle sequences put
you right in the fight.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
In the same
vein as 2012’s Les Miserables, La La Land captures the majority of its’
musical performances live instead of dubbing in post-production. Watch Emma Stone’s
performance in the audition scene and tell me that would be better if done in
post. Nope, you can’t.
Who will
win: La La Land
For the same
reason as stated above. The live sound recording adds to the realism of the
film. No other film comes close in this category.
Best Original Song
Jim: The James Foley Story – “The Empty
Chair”
La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who
Dream)”
La La Land – “City of Stars”
Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”
Who I
would vote for: La La Land – “Audition
(The Fools Who Dream)”
It’s the
climax of the film and easily the most affecting scene. It’s the moment where
Emma Stone wins her Oscar. La La Land
has to win for Best Song since it has at least 5 original songs that could have
been nominated. In my opinion, this one is the most deserving.
Who will
win: La La Land – “City of Stars”
This song
has been winning at every previous award ceremony. It is the spine of the story
being performed throughout the entire film and it’s probably the one you’re humming
when walking out of the theater.
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
Are you
sensing a pattern here? Justin Hurwitz has created a score that is timeless.
Modern day musicals written directly for the screen just aren’t made in this
day and age. It’s an astonishing accomplishment.
Who will
win: La La Land
In any other
year the scores for Jackie or Moonlight would be shoo-ins to win. They
just have the misfortune of being released in the same year as the musical that
reinvigorated its’ genre.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Who I
would vote for: Suicide Squad
Two words:
Killer Croc. His makeup work alone deserves the statuette. Then you add in the
iconic images of Harley Quinn and The Joker. This superhero movie may have been
a flop with the critics but they can’t take anything away from its makeup
department.
Who will
win: Star Trek Beyond
It was a
better reviewed film than Suicide Squad
so I see Hollywood voting its’ way instead. Jaylah’s makeup is fantastic. I had
no idea it was the same actress from The
Kingsman until well after seeing the film. Make it so, Academy.
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
This is a
toss-up between La La Land and Jackie. The costumers on Jackie captured the former First Lady’s
style perfectly but La La Land’s use
of color ultimately does it for me. I keep thinking of the women’s dresses
during “Someone in the Crowd” and how perfectly they work within the scene.
Who will
win: La La Land
Mary Zophres
is a well-respected costumer and she will finally get her trophy. Through the
costumes you see Emma Stone’s Mia transform from a nobody to a star and let’s
not forget that awesome 80’s ensemble Ryan Gosling gets to wear during the pool
party scene.
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
Arrival is a close second but the look
and feel of La La Land is one of its’
many strong attributes. From the character’s respective apartments to the clubs
to the fantasy sequences, the production design team nailed it to perfection.
Who will
win: La La Land
As I just
said, the look and feel of La La Land
is second to none. The design of the epilogue scene is enough to bring the
Oscar home. The production design sucks you into this world of dreamers and
makes you want to stay forever.
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Who I
would vote for: Arrival
Without
giving away any spoilers I will say that Arrival
is so wonderfully crafted that the twist in the story truly blew me away. The
key to this stunning story is in the editing. If you haven’t seen it, watch it
and you’ll understand what I’m saying. It’s magnificent.
Who will
win: La La Land
The pacing
of this film is flawless and that’s why it will win for editing. The
aforementioned epilogue scene is the prime example. Whatever film wins Best
Editing typically wins Best Picture. You do the math.
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
No other
film has such daring camera choreography. The opening song and dance is done in
one virtually continuous uncut take and is a master class in how to open a film musical.
And it’s not the only scene in the film done this way.
Who will
win: La La Land
I could just
repeat what I just wrote but I will add that the look of the film pays perfect
homage to some classic films of the past such as An American in Paris and The
Umbrellas of Cherbourg. If you’re not a film historian you might not pick
up on that but believe me, the Academy will.
For the
following categories I will just pick who I think will win based off of other
award ceremonies and some enlightened reading. Unlike all the other categories,
I have not seen the majority of these films but will try to help you win your
office Oscar pool nonetheless. It’s usually a safe bet to pick the socially and
politically relevant films.
Best Foreign
Language Film: The Salesman – The
film’s director (from Iran) has decided not to attend the ceremony as a protest
against President Trump’s travel ban. The ever-so liberal Hollywood establishment
will likely reward his decision with a statuette. If not, look for Toni Erdmann to win.
Best Live
Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs
– Algerian terrorism reaches France. A timely subject that is sure to garner
votes. Silent Nights could sneak in,
as well, with its themes involving a refugee in an interracial love affair.
Best
Documentary Feature: 13th
– Ava DuVernay’s exploration of the U.S. prison system and racial inequality
will narrowly beat out O.J.: Made in
America largely due to O.J.’s
5-part, 7 hour and 47 minute run time. How many Academy members have the time
to watch that? No matter how riveting it may be.
Best
Documentary Short: Joe’s Violin –
A Holocaust survivor affects the life of a young girl equals Oscar bait. Couple
that with the fact that 2 other nominated shorts about the crisis in Syria will
likely cancel each other out.
Best
Animated Short: Piper – I have actually
seen this one as it played before Moana
in the theaters. The Academy loves Disney shorts especially those by Pixar.
Write this one in with pen not pencil.
Now on to the biggest awards of the
evening:
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Who I
would vote for: Moana
I love Kubo but Moana’s songs and pacing win the day. It joins the pantheon of
instant classic Disney animated musicals. Sure the theme of “follow your heart”
is a little overdone but the filmmakers found a way to make it fresh while
diving into a previously unexplored culture.
Who will
win: Zootopia
It has
cleaned up at every previous awards ceremony other than the BAFTAs (who gave it
to Kubo). This clever parable about
defeating fear mongers is exactly the type of film the Academy loves to make a
statement with. Zootopia is for
kids and adults alike while also conveying a social message.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Who I
would vote for: Arrival
Again, no
spoilers. The way this story comes together is seamless and breathtaking. The fact
that this film was based on a short story and expanded to a feature length film
is an impressive feat.
Who will
win: Moonlight
This, to me,
is somewhat of a political statement made by the Academy. I, personally, was a
little bored with this film as I felt the pacing was very slow. But I cannot
deny the power of the story of a young black man struggling with his sexual
identity within a culture that has historically ostracized homosexuals. That
important message is not lost on me and it won’t be lost on the Academy voters.
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Who I
would vote for: Hell or High Water
This script
is a wonderful throwback to the westerns of old while still existing in the
timeframe of today. The social commentary on what the banks are doing to honest
hardworking Americans is evident from the first frame of the film. And no other
film had more memorable one-liners like “So, what dontcha’ want” and “lord of
the plains”.
Who will
win: Manchester by the Sea
Just like Hacksaw Ridge in the Sound Editing
category I believe this will be a consolation prize as Manchester’s only win of the night. I wasn’t as impressed as other
critics with the story. The characters don’t grow much but maybe that’s the
point. The script does explore grief like I’ve never seen on screen before and
perhaps that’s why it will win.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Who I
would vote for: Viola Davis
Williams is
a close second but just doesn’t have enough screen time to catch Davis’s
gut-wrenching performance. As the matriarch who makes countless sacrifices for
her family, Davis explodes through the screen and claims the throne as “best
snot crier” in the history of cinema.
Who will
win: Viola Davis
She’s long
deserved this award. She held her own with Streep and Adams in Doubt. She easily had the best
performance in The Help and had to
sit by and watch Octavia Spencer take home the gold. Not this time. This one is
a sure thing; another one you can bet the house on.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Who I
would vote for: Dev Patel
I would vote
for Ben Foster in Hell or High Water
if he were nominated but unfortunately he’s not. Michael Shannon is also one of
my favorite actors working today but I have to go with Patel. When he finally
comes on screen after 30 minutes or so of Lion,
he carries the movie the rest of way. No other performance is as beautiful and
affecting than his.
Who will
win: Mahershala Ali
Here is
where the Academy makes its biggest political statement by rewarding an
African-American Muslim the Oscar. Please don’t get me wrong here. I’m a fan of
Ali (especially his work in House of
Cards) but his win will be more symbolic than accurate. This will be
Hollywood’s way of saying “take that, Mr. Trump”. And I’m sure his acceptance
speech will be one of the most memorable of the night.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Who I
would vote for: Emma Stone
For a while
I was dead set on Portman but I am now locked in with Stone. She captured what
it means to be a fighter, a survivor and above all else a dreamer. At a time
when I’ve shifted my career course and finally decided to pursue filmmaking her
performance resonated with me. “Here’s to the ones who dream.”
Who will
win: Emma Stone
She has
steamrolled her way through the latest award shows so it now seems like a
foregone conclusion that she will win. In her speech at the SAG Awards she said
she was honored to be an actor playing an actor being recognized by other
actors. Get used to it Emma; you’ve got one more time to be honored this awards
season.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Who I
would vote for: Ryan Gosling
I’ve seen Affleck
brood through an entire movie before. I’ve seen Denzel deliver powerful lines
with gusto before. I’ve never seen Gosling as a song and dance man. He learned
how to play the piano just before shooting began and John Legend said he was
jealous of how quickly he picked it up. And I’m glad he did because I couldn’t
imagine any other actor in this role. His charm, wit and soul fit perfectly
into the character of Seb.
Who will
win: Denzel Washington
It seemed
like Affleck was a sure thing to take home this award but the resurfacing of allegations
of sexual harassment have derailed his campaign. After winning the SAG award
Washington is now the front runner. Between the two I prefer Washington’s
performance anyway. If Denzel does win, he will join Walter Brennan, Ingrid
Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Meryl Streep, and Daniel Day-Lewis in the “3 Oscars
Club”. When it comes to actors, only Katharine Hepburn has more, with 4.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Who I
would vote for: Damien Chazelle
His vision
is unique. Who would dare make an original motion picture musical in 2017? They
just aren’t backed by the studios because they don’t make money. Well, this one
has made $125 million as it has touched audiences young and old. When I
typically think of directors I think of shot choices but directing is much more
than that. Chazelle worked in sync with every department to create this modern
day gem.
Who will
win: Damien Chazelle
He’s won
every other prestigious award including the Director’s Guild Award. It’s a sure
thing for Chazelle to be recognized by the Academy as Best Director as he has
helped push the brand of Hollywood as a positive entity.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Who I
would vote for: La La Land
My #1 film
of the year usually excels at every facet of filmmaking: directing, camera,
script, acting, production design, costume, sound, etc. Last year that was Mad Max: Fury Road and sadly it did not
win. This year, without question that film is La La Land. Every element of the film comes together with fluidity
and impeccable style. I could watch this film over and over. It just doesn’t
have any flaws. Furthermore, I am truly inspired by this film. It makes me want
to pursue my dreams and never give up no matter what obstacle awaits me.
Who will
win: La La Land
It is rare
that my #1 film of the year matches up with the Academy’s Best Picture winner.
The last time it happened was No Country
for Old Men in 2007. Well, it looks like it will happen again this year.
The only film that stands in La La Land’s
way would be Moonlight but I just
don’t see it happening. Being nominated in a record-tying 14 categories is just
too much to ignore. If the Academy is going to nominate a film that many times
it will likely win the biggest prize of the night. Hollywood should just use
this tagline to promote its brand for the foreseeable future, “This is the
dream! It’s conflict and it’s compromise, and it’s very, very exciting!” Thank
you, Mr. Chazelle, for those words to live by.
So, I believe
that answers the big questions looming over the 89th Academy Awards.
There will be plenty of opportunities for Hollywood to make their political
statements especially with Best Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature and
the acting categories. After two years of all-white acting nominees I am
predicting 3 African-American winners. Movies take a long time to make so it’s
not like these particular films were created just to quell the backlash of
#OscarsSoWhite. I hope the world will see these accomplishments as progress
instead of tokenism because the recipients are unquestionably worthy of their
statuettes.
As for La La
Land’s attempt at the record books I believe it will fall just short of tying
the record of 11 by winning 10 Oscars. I’ll be rooting for it to win 12 but I
just don’t think it’s possible. Since it is nominated twice for Best Song the
film would have to win Best Sound Editing and then pull off an upset in either
Best Actor or Best Original Screenplay to have a chance at the record. I hope
it happens but it’s a long shot. Damien Chazelle and company will have to
settle for the round number of 10. What a disappointing evening!
Enjoy the
festivities and I hope you win your Oscar pool! “I’ll see you in the movies.”
©2017 Geek Homeworld Productions. Written by Entertainment Correspondent Scott Schreiber, who has a background in film history and theory. If you wish to contact Scott you can do so at: schreiberfilm@gmail.com
Check out our Geek Homeworld Podcast!
©2017 Geek Homeworld Productions. Written by Entertainment Correspondent Scott Schreiber, who has a background in film history and theory. If you wish to contact Scott you can do so at: schreiberfilm@gmail.com
Check out our Geek Homeworld Podcast!
Finally, good luck I will check back to see how you fared.
ReplyDeletesome surprises but overall you were on it!
ReplyDelete