Ed Ciucevich and Scott Schreiber bring you our Oscars 2019 Recap.
Thanks for listening,
Ed Ciucevich
2-25-19
Monday, February 25, 2019
Friday, February 22, 2019
2019 Oscars Predictions Part 2
Let’s continue by predicting
the major awards of the evening!
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
·
Avengers:
Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick
·
Christopher
Robin - Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould
·
First Man
– Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm
·
Ready
Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk
·
Solo: A
Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
Who I’d vote for: Ready
Player One – Holy cow, what a visual feast! I’m a huge fan of 3D when
it’s done right and boy did Mr. Spielberg and Dreamworks deliver. The entire
film is practically visual effects. That lifts it above the excellent work of
the other nominees.
Who will win: Avengers:
Infinity War – The #1 global box office film of 2018 (and all-time
opening weekend record-holder) should have an Oscar too, right? If the voters
want to honor the major earners of the year then they have to vote Infinity War for “Best Visual Effects”
as this is the only chance to do so. Seamlessly combining all the different
worlds within the Marvel Cinematic Universe makes a win over Ready Player One and First Man justifiable.
Best Animated Feature Film
·
Incredibles
2 – Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle
·
Isle of
Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson
·
Mirai
– Mamoru Hosoda, Yuichiro Saito
·
Ralph
Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer
·
Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil
Lord, Christopher Miller
Who I’d vote for: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
– Spider-Verse was truly a one-of-a-kind movie going experience and I didn’t
even have to see it in 3D. Most of the scenes felt like 3D anyway with the
unique style of animation meant to immerse the viewer into the comic book
cells; which perfectly complemented the film’s message that anyone could be
under the mask. Spider-Verse finds itself on my Top 10 Overall Films of
2018 so this one’s a no-brainer.
Who will win: Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse – It has won every precursor there is; I mean
every single one. Even with two fantastic Disney sequels and a Wes Anderson gem
in the running, Spider-Verse will run
away with this statuette. Not only is the animation groundbreaking, the story
and the characters within that story are equally monumental. A win here for
Lord/Miller almost makes up for the Oscar snub of The Lego Movie in 2014.
Best Adapted Screenplay
·
A Star Is
Born – Eric Roth, Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper
·
The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
·
BlacKkKlansman
– Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
·
If Beale
Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
·
Can You
Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Who I’d vote for: A
Star Is Born – I had a great amount of apprehension when I heard there
would be yet another remake of A Star Is
Born. The original tale has been done to death with the 3 previous films of
the same name and countless other imitators. But the screenwriters were able to
breathe modern life into this century-old story and gave us the best monologue
of the year in Sam Elliott’s ode to his brother while consoling Ali. “All any
artist can offer the world is how they see those twelve notes. That’s it. He
loved how you see them.”
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman
– Beale Street has won some of the
pre-cursors but it is not nominated for Best Picture. I believe that gives the
edge to BlacKkKlansman which is
coming off a victory at the BAFTA awards. The only other Best Picture nominee in
this category is A Star Is Born but I
envision the Academy gravitating towards the script dealing with race relations
instead of the script dealing with mental health and addiction. This would also
mark the first Oscar win for Spike Lee, which could be ratings gold resulting
in one of the most memorable acceptance speeches in Academy history.
Best Original Screenplay
·
The
Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
·
First
Reformed – Paul Schrader
·
Green
Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
·
Roma –
Alfonso Cuaron
·
Vice –
Adam McKay
Who I’d vote for: The
Favourite – No other film radiates wit and intelligence more than The Favourite. On the surface, the film
could have been another boring period piece about yet another privileged Queen.
Yet, it turns into a delightful commentary on female empowerment when only a
handful of women in the world had any power at all. All three principal ladies
gain and lose influence as they navigate their moral boundaries for
self-preservation.
Who will win – The
Favourite –Roma and Vice should be considered legitimate
contenders but they will win other awards so this will be another case of
spreading the love. Green Book was
looking like the front-runner but controversial remarks made by one of its
writers have seriously damaged its chances at this award, as well as Best
Picture. The Favourite had the most
complex and innovative script of the bunch; the odds should be in their favour.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
·
Mahershala
Ali – Green Book
·
Adam
Driver - BlacKkKlansman
·
Sam
Elliott – A Star Is Born
·
Richard
E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
·
Sam
Rockwell - Vice
Who I’d vote for: Sam
Elliott – This one is really a coin flip between Ali and Elliott but if
forced to choose I would pick Elliott. His portrayal of the man who took a
backseat to his younger brother is a masterclass in mixing vulnerability with
tough man bravado. I sure would love to hear that iconic voice who lamented
about “The Dude” give an acceptance speech this Sunday.
Who will win: Mahershala
Ali – All signs point to Ali winning his second Oscar in the past three
years. He took home the SAG, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA already.
Nothing is stopping this freight train. It’s exciting to see what’s on the
horizon for Ali. Here’s my prediction…he will be taking home more hardware next
awards season for his role in HBO’s “True Detective”. Add an Emmy to the
mantle.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
·
Amy Adams
- Vice
·
Marina de
Tavira - Roma
·
Regina
King – If Beale Street Could Talk
·
Emma
Stone – The Favourite
·
Rachel
Weisz - The Favourite
Who I’d vote for: Rachel
Weisz – Even though this is a crop of stellar performances, I only have
one question. Can I vote for Emily Blunt in A
Quiet Place? She won the SAG but somehow was snubbed come Oscar
announcements. Weisz lands at #2 on my list of supporting actresses this year behind
Blunt while King (#4), Stone (#5) and Adams (#6) trail right behind. All three women
of The Favourite are mesmerizing but
Weisz’s “smartest lady in the room” edges out the rest.
Who will win: Regina
King – The supporting actress accolades have been all over the place
with Blunt (SAG), Weisz (BAFTA), and King (Critics Choice/Golden Globe) each
winning respective awards. The distinguishing factor here is that whenever King
is nominated, she wins. She is a formidable power player in town who can also produce
and direct. People are lining up to work with her and it will show in this
year’s voting. Expect to see King accept an Oscar to keep her Emmy collection
company.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
·
Christian
Bale - Vice
·
Bradley
Cooper – A Star Is Born
·
Willem
Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
·
Rami
Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
·
Viggo
Mortensen – Green Book
Who I’d vote for: Christian
Bale – I’ve talked to plenty of people who were shocked to learn the
identity of the man behind the Dick Cheney makeup. Bale gives an unmatched
performance much like Gary Oldman did last year (Darkest Hour). Some could argue his performance was greatly
enhanced by the hair/makeup team; which I cannot deny. However, Bale nails
Cheney’s devilish smirk and his unmistakable voice and swagger. Anybody with a
brain in their skull should vote for Bale.
Who will win: Rami
Malek – Unfortunately, many people do not vote with their brains. Malek
will win because people will vote with their hearts. Bale had been winning all
the pre-cursors until he shot himself in the foot by thanking Satan in one of
his acceptance speeches. It was a sly joke at the expense of the man he
portrayed but when compared to Malek’s promotion of Freddie Mercury’s
positivity and inclusiveness, you start to comprehend the shift in opinions.
While I would rank every other actor’s performance in this category above
Malek, I understand why people are drawn to Malek, the person.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
·
Yalitza
Aparicio - Roma
·
Glenn
Close – The Wife
·
Olivia
Colman - The Favourite
·
Lady Gaga
– A Star Is Born
·
Melissa
McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who I’d vote for: Glenn
Close – There are two particular scenes in The Wife that are beautiful and devastating at the same time. Each
scene is an appropriate close-up of
the renowned actress where she conveys every thought in her head without
uttering a single word. It’s the type of performance that makes an actor a
legend…if they aren’t one already.
Who will win: Glenn
Close – This will be Close’s seventh attempt at winning her ever
elusive Oscar as her previous tries sadly came up short. I mean, come on!
Mo’Nique has an Oscar and Glenn Close doesn’t?!? The voters are well aware of
this and will reward her with a long overdue Oscar. Sometimes this is done at
the wrong time for the wrong performance but not in this case. Lady Gaga will
get her Oscar for “Best Song” so I don’t see her winning “Best Actress”. Colman
has a chance at an upset but at the end of the day the voters will show the
respect due to the unparalleled Glenn Close.
Best Achievement in Directing
·
Alfonso
Cuaron - Roma
·
Yorgos
Lanthimos – The Favourite
·
Spike Lee
- BlacKkKlansman
·
Adam
McKay - Vice
·
Pawel
Pawlikowski – Cold War
Who I’d vote for: Alfonso
Cuaron – Can you give an Oscar for “Best Blocking” (choreographing
actor’s movements)? Yes, yes you can. It’s called “Best Director”. Cuaron is
the master of maneuvering his actors and cameras seamlessly. I was enthralled
by each and every camera movement that effortlessly matched the performers’
actions. He also wrought an Oscar nominated performance from his lead actress
who had never even been in a film before. I really wish Damien Chazelle (First Man), John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) and Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns) were
representatives in this category but Cuaron would still get my vote.
Who will win: Alfonso
Cuaron – Here is another lock of the evening. All the pre-cursors have
gone his way and the biggest indicator of all for “Best Director” is the winner
of the Directors Guild Award; which Cuaron indeed won. While I don’t think Roma is quite the masterpiece that Gravity is, it is awfully close. Cuaron
will win his second trophy for “Best Director” (Gravity) and could win as many as four Oscars before the night is
through. Viva la Mexico!
Best Motion Picture of the Year
·
Black
Panther: Kevin Feige
·
BlacKkKlansman:
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee
·
Bohemian
Rhapsody: Graham King
·
The
Favourite: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Yorgos Lanthimos
·
Green
Book: Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick
Vallelonga
·
Roma:
Gabriela Rodriguez, Alfonso Cuaron
·
A Star Is
Born: Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor
·
Vice:
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, Kevin Messick
Who I’d vote for: A
Star Is Born – Cooper’s directorial debut is the only film from the “Best
Picture” nominees to make my Top 10 of 2018 so it obviously gets my vote.
Combine incredible original music (RECORDED LIVE) with profoundly human
performances and you get a modern day classic. I wish A Star Is Born could join One
Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) and A
Beautiful Mind (2001) as a “Best Picture” winner but I don’t see it
happening. Mental health and addiction are crises many people do not want to
talk about but the discussion is absolutely necessary.
Who will win: Roma
– While President Trump does whatever he can to build a wall along our Mexican
border, Hollywood will send a resilient message to Washington, D.C. by giving
the industry’s top honor to a foreign language film for the first time in Oscar
history. The cherry on top is that it will be a film from Mexico. While its win
will be largely symbolic, the film itself is “Best Picture”-worthy due to the
technical accomplishments behind the camera and the heart-warming account of a
selfless woman so brilliantly portrayed by first-time film actress Yalitza
Aparicio. The film opened my eyes to a culture I knew very little about;
hopefully the rest of America can follow suit.
WRAP-UP
The night will mostly belong to
Alfonso Cuaron and Roma but as the
Academy shifts toward rewarding more audience-pleasing films we will see a more
balanced representation between prestige and popcorn. Black Panther and Bohemian
Rhapsody will undoubtedly go home with little gold men and with the
nominations of the critically disliked Vice
and Bohemian Rhapsody for “Best Picture”, it made me wonder what other previous “Best
Picture” nominees were also unpopular with the critics. I had to go back nearly
a decade to find two comparable films: Extremely
Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and The
Blind Side (2009). When averaging the critics’ scores from Rotten Tomatoes
and MetaCritic and the audience scores from Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB.com, I
came up with this list of the 2018 “Best Picture” Nominees in order of best
average score (out of 100) and compared the results to the two most recent
nominees that weren’t well received by the critics.
Film
|
RottenTomatoes
|
MetaCritic
|
RT Audience
|
IMBD
|
AVG
|
|
1
|
Roma
|
96
|
96
|
75
|
79
|
86.50
|
2
|
Black Panther
|
97
|
88
|
79
|
74
|
84.50
|
3
|
A Star Is Born
|
90
|
88
|
80
|
79
|
84.25
|
4
|
BlacKkKlansman
|
95
|
83
|
82
|
75
|
83.75
|
5
|
The Favourite
|
94
|
90
|
64
|
78
|
81.50
|
6
|
Green Book
|
79
|
69
|
94
|
83
|
81.25
|
7
|
Bohemian Rhapsody
|
61
|
49
|
88
|
82
|
70.00
|
8
|
Vice
|
66
|
61
|
56
|
72
|
63.75
|
2009
|
The Blind Side
|
66
|
53
|
85
|
77
|
70.25
|
2011
|
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
|
46
|
46
|
61
|
69
|
55.50
|
The top six films come out
looking respectable (all besting 81/100) even though The Favourite is dragged down by audience scores and Green Book by critics. It’s interesting
how well Bohemian Rhapsody’s numbers
(70.00) match up with The Blind Side (70.25);
both films were loved by audiences but torn apart by critics. But it’s Vice that comes away as the true loser
here (63.75) becoming the worst “Best Picture” nominee since Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
(55.50) bringing into question the validity of its nomination. This data
supports the theory that the Academy is moving toward balancing the blockbuster
nominations with the art-house films - all the while trying to stay socially and
politically woke, as it were. So sit back, relax, and enjoy this pivotal moment
in the Academy’s history – the 91st Oscars. At the very least –
Queen will, Queen will, rock you!
Written by: Scott Schreiber
Podcast: www.geekhomeworld.libsyn.com
Twitter: @GeekHomeworld
Written by: Scott Schreiber
Podcast: www.geekhomeworld.libsyn.com
Twitter: @GeekHomeworld
2019 Oscar Predictions Part 1
The 91st annual
Academy Awards has had a rough lead-up to the ceremony filled with indecision.
There have been many judgment reversals along the way including the “Best
Popular Film” shoot-down, the Kevin Hart hosting debacle and not televising the
“Best Song” performances and four of the technical categories. The latter
prompted an official letter of protest from Oscar-winning A-Listers including
Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino and Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki (3-time winner for
“Best Cinematography” – one category that was slated to be cut).
Through all of this, it is the clear that the Academy (and to an extent ABC since they are televising the event) is putting public opinion first. After the disastrous ratings from last year’s Oscar telecast they are crumbling to any public criticism. So we will more than likely get another 4 hour show where the winners will list off a bunch of names and bore us to tears. Thank God we still get the “Best Song” performances and an opening treat from Queen and Adam Lambert. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performing “Shallow” and a special appearance by Better Midler on Mary Poppins Returns’ “The Place Where Lost Things Go” are sure to be highlights of the evening. And I’m sure there will be a couple of surprises; as of now “All the Stars” from Black Panther has not been announced as one of the performances but don’t be surprised if you see Kendrick Lamar and SZA this Sunday night.
To complement the Academy’s emphasis on pleasing the public, this year’s crop of Oscar nominees got a little more box office friendly. The domestic box office champ of 2018, Black Panther, became the first superhero movie ever to be nominated for “Best Picture” while it was joined by Bohemian Rhapsody, a rousing crowd-pleaser /moneymaker but critical failure (61% on RottenTomatoes.com). As the Academy’s diversity grows, so too will the types of films we see nominated for Oscars. I believe 2018 is the turning point issuing in a new age of balance where blockbusters will be as accepted on the Oscar stage as the prestige films. Perhaps a Marvel movie will never win “Best Picture” but now they’ve at least got a seat at the table.
PREDICTIONS
Vice and their
performances are largely fueled by their hair and makeup team. Makeup artist
Greg Cannom already has three Oscar wins in his career for Dracula, Mrs. Doubtfire
and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
His work on Vice begs the voters to
make it number four.Through all of this, it is the clear that the Academy (and to an extent ABC since they are televising the event) is putting public opinion first. After the disastrous ratings from last year’s Oscar telecast they are crumbling to any public criticism. So we will more than likely get another 4 hour show where the winners will list off a bunch of names and bore us to tears. Thank God we still get the “Best Song” performances and an opening treat from Queen and Adam Lambert. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper performing “Shallow” and a special appearance by Better Midler on Mary Poppins Returns’ “The Place Where Lost Things Go” are sure to be highlights of the evening. And I’m sure there will be a couple of surprises; as of now “All the Stars” from Black Panther has not been announced as one of the performances but don’t be surprised if you see Kendrick Lamar and SZA this Sunday night.
To complement the Academy’s emphasis on pleasing the public, this year’s crop of Oscar nominees got a little more box office friendly. The domestic box office champ of 2018, Black Panther, became the first superhero movie ever to be nominated for “Best Picture” while it was joined by Bohemian Rhapsody, a rousing crowd-pleaser /moneymaker but critical failure (61% on RottenTomatoes.com). As the Academy’s diversity grows, so too will the types of films we see nominated for Oscars. I believe 2018 is the turning point issuing in a new age of balance where blockbusters will be as accepted on the Oscar stage as the prestige films. Perhaps a Marvel movie will never win “Best Picture” but now they’ve at least got a seat at the table.
PREDICTIONS
Now let’s get to the fun part:
Predictions! There are more coin flips and highly contested categories than
usual this year but there will still be a fair share of locks. Part One will
cover the short films, documentary, foreign, design, and sound awards. Part Two
will cover all the major awards including acting, directing and “Best Picture”.
Come along and pay close attention if you want to win your office Oscar pool
this year…
Best Animated Short Film – Bao: first short film at Pixar directed by a female
Best Live Action Short Film – Marguerite: sweet story separates from the other “kids in peril” plotlines
Best Documentary Short Subject –A Night at the Garden: American fascism in 1939 eerily mirrors today
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo: innovative camerawork, incredible feat by extraordinary man
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year – Roma: breathtaking love letter to Mexico
Best Animated Short Film – Bao: first short film at Pixar directed by a female
Best Live Action Short Film – Marguerite: sweet story separates from the other “kids in peril” plotlines
Best Documentary Short Subject –A Night at the Garden: American fascism in 1939 eerily mirrors today
Best Documentary Feature – Free Solo: innovative camerawork, incredible feat by extraordinary man
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year – Roma: breathtaking love letter to Mexico
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
·
Border – Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer
Border – Goran Lundstrom, Pamela Goldammer
·
Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
·
Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaney
Who I’d vote for: Vice – Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is an astonishing accomplishment. If he wins his second Oscar of his career this Sunday, I guarantee you he will mention his 200 hours in the makeup chair and appreciatively thank his hair and makeup team. I just copied and pasted this from last year (Darkest Hour/Gary Oldman) and changed the names. It’s like déjà vu.
– It’s hard to deny this one. Bale disappears into Cheney; Carell into Rumsfeld; Perry into Powell; and so on and so on. Some of the best acting of the year can be seen in
Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaney
Who I’d vote for: Vice – Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is an astonishing accomplishment. If he wins his second Oscar of his career this Sunday, I guarantee you he will mention his 200 hours in the makeup chair and appreciatively thank his hair and makeup team. I just copied and pasted this from last year (Darkest Hour/Gary Oldman) and changed the names. It’s like déjà vu.
– It’s hard to deny this one. Bale disappears into Cheney; Carell into Rumsfeld; Perry into Powell; and so on and so on. Some of the best acting of the year can be seen in
Best Achievement in Costume Design
·
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
·
Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
·
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
·
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
·
Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Who I’d vote for: Black Panther – The Marvel movie’s costumes are the most unique of the nominated bunch. The wardrobes in the other four films are fantastic but I feel like we’ve seen them before in other period pieces and westerns of the past. The addition of having to clothe hundreds of extras only adds to this distinctive accomplishment of Ruth E. Carter and her team.
Who will win: Black Panther – The two period pieces (The Favourite & Mary Queen of Scots) will cancel each other out. Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner and now 14-time nominee) will also cancel herself out with her dual nominations. That leaves 3-time nominees Mary Zophres & Ruth E. Carter. I believe Carter edges out the competition earning her first Oscar win as the Academy will pounce on the most obvious (and deserving) chance to reward Black Panther a statuette.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Who I’d vote for: Black Panther – The Marvel movie’s costumes are the most unique of the nominated bunch. The wardrobes in the other four films are fantastic but I feel like we’ve seen them before in other period pieces and westerns of the past. The addition of having to clothe hundreds of extras only adds to this distinctive accomplishment of Ruth E. Carter and her team.
Who will win: Black Panther – The two period pieces (The Favourite & Mary Queen of Scots) will cancel each other out. Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner and now 14-time nominee) will also cancel herself out with her dual nominations. That leaves 3-time nominees Mary Zophres & Ruth E. Carter. I believe Carter edges out the competition earning her first Oscar win as the Academy will pounce on the most obvious (and deserving) chance to reward Black Panther a statuette.
Best Achievement in Production Design
·
Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart
Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart
·
The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
·
First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
·
Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
·
Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez
Who I’d vote for: First Man – You could argue a point for all five nominees here; all teams built stunningly different worlds. Ultimately, I’m drawn to the realism that Crowley and Lucas crafted for Damien Chazelle’s story of primitive space flight and the intrepid astronauts who dared take on the unknown challenges of said space exploration. You feel like you’re in Neil Armstrong’s space boots every step of the way, especially for that one giant leap.
Who will win: Black Panther – This is where the Academy might throw The Favourite a bone. With ten nominations, Yorgos Lanthimos’s period piece is tied for the most nominations this year (Roma) but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went home empty-handed at the end of the night. Again, I believe the voters are eager to reward Black Panther with some hardware but they won’t vote for a Marvel movie to win Best Picture. Expect to see the box office juggernaut take home multiple design awards including Production Design.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez
Who I’d vote for: First Man – You could argue a point for all five nominees here; all teams built stunningly different worlds. Ultimately, I’m drawn to the realism that Crowley and Lucas crafted for Damien Chazelle’s story of primitive space flight and the intrepid astronauts who dared take on the unknown challenges of said space exploration. You feel like you’re in Neil Armstrong’s space boots every step of the way, especially for that one giant leap.
Who will win: Black Panther – This is where the Academy might throw The Favourite a bone. With ten nominations, Yorgos Lanthimos’s period piece is tied for the most nominations this year (Roma) but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went home empty-handed at the end of the night. Again, I believe the voters are eager to reward Black Panther with some hardware but they won’t vote for a Marvel movie to win Best Picture. Expect to see the box office juggernaut take home multiple design awards including Production Design.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
·
Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson
Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson
·
BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard
BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard
·
If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
·
Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat
Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat
·
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman
Who I’d vote for: Mary Poppins Returns – What a daunting challenge it had to be to make a sequel to the 54-year-old classic Mary Poppins. The enormous pressure on the shoulders of director Rob Marshall had to be lifted significantly when he heard Marc Shaiman’s original score. The spirit of the original film is brilliantly captured and duplicated through his magical re-interpretation.
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman – Mary Poppins Returns seems like the obvious choice but this is the one category where I’m going out on a limb. I’m tempted to pick Black Panther, as well, since ABC has been using the film’s score to promote the Oscar telecast and Ludwig Goransson’s career is skyrocketing after his Grammy-winning collaboration with Childish Gambino. Aside from a possible win for screenplay, BlacKkKlansman will otherwise be shut out. Terence Blanchard is Spike Lee’s longtime colleague, composing nearly all of Lee’s films including brilliant scores for Malcolm X and 25th Hour. Shockingly, this is Blanchard’s first Oscar nomination and with a little luck, his first win.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman
Who I’d vote for: Mary Poppins Returns – What a daunting challenge it had to be to make a sequel to the 54-year-old classic Mary Poppins. The enormous pressure on the shoulders of director Rob Marshall had to be lifted significantly when he heard Marc Shaiman’s original score. The spirit of the original film is brilliantly captured and duplicated through his magical re-interpretation.
Who will win: BlacKkKlansman – Mary Poppins Returns seems like the obvious choice but this is the one category where I’m going out on a limb. I’m tempted to pick Black Panther, as well, since ABC has been using the film’s score to promote the Oscar telecast and Ludwig Goransson’s career is skyrocketing after his Grammy-winning collaboration with Childish Gambino. Aside from a possible win for screenplay, BlacKkKlansman will otherwise be shut out. Terence Blanchard is Spike Lee’s longtime colleague, composing nearly all of Lee’s films including brilliant scores for Malcolm X and 25th Hour. Shockingly, this is Blanchard’s first Oscar nomination and with a little luck, his first win.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
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The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- David Rawlings, Gillian Welch “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- David Rawlings, Gillian Welch “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
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Black Panther – Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Anthony Tiffith “All the Stars”
Black Panther – Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Anthony Tiffith “All the Stars”
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Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
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RBG – Diane Warren “I’ll Fight”
RBG – Diane Warren “I’ll Fight”
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A Star Is Born – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt “Shallow”
A Star Is Born – Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt “Shallow”
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – As a rule I don’t respect the “credit songs” as much as I do the songs that were actually used to help tell the story. That disqualifies the entries of Black Panther & RGB from the race. I loved the songs from Mary Poppins Returns as they captured the essence of the original classic but there really is no competition here. Not only is “Shallow” an earworm but it represents the pivotal moment in Ali and Jackson’s relationship when Ali steps forward into the spotlight for the very first time. I cannot wait to see Gaga and Cooper perform this during the telecast.
Who will win: A Star Is Born – Hollywood will reward Lady Gaga an Oscar…but not for acting just yet. Sadly, I see this as the only win of the night for A Star Is Born and it is where it deserves it the most. How do you make a fourth iteration of a film and still keep it fresh and appealing to audiences? You create incredible original music and ground it with deeply human performances. Mission accomplished: consider it a 100% lock to win “Best Song”; you can go ahead and bet your life savings.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
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Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin
Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin
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Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali
Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali
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First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis
First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis
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Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, Jose Antonio Garcia
Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, Jose Antonio Garcia
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A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – I’m shocked at myself for not saying First Man but I would vote for the film that captured live music like no other this year. As an avid concert goer (I’m a proud attendee of the first three Bonnaroo Music Festivals and countless other concerts), I felt A Star Is Born’s musical performances were exceptionally genuine while Bohemian Rhapsody’s karaoke approach felt staged and overblown. A Star Is Born recorded their performances live instead of adding the songs in later during post-production like Rhapsody. I’ll take genuine over fabricated any day of the week.
Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody – It won Best Sound at the BAFTAs which is really the only precursor for the sound categories since the AMPS (Association of Motion Picture Sound) has not announced their winner yet. As I’ve mentioned, this year Hollywood wants to honor more box office smashes than they have in the past. Also, eight-time Oscar nominee Paul Massey has never won. This is probably one of multiple trophies Rhapsody takes home though I believe it is more deserving for sound editing.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Who I’d vote for: A Star Is Born – I’m shocked at myself for not saying First Man but I would vote for the film that captured live music like no other this year. As an avid concert goer (I’m a proud attendee of the first three Bonnaroo Music Festivals and countless other concerts), I felt A Star Is Born’s musical performances were exceptionally genuine while Bohemian Rhapsody’s karaoke approach felt staged and overblown. A Star Is Born recorded their performances live instead of adding the songs in later during post-production like Rhapsody. I’ll take genuine over fabricated any day of the week.
Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody – It won Best Sound at the BAFTAs which is really the only precursor for the sound categories since the AMPS (Association of Motion Picture Sound) has not announced their winner yet. As I’ve mentioned, this year Hollywood wants to honor more box office smashes than they have in the past. Also, eight-time Oscar nominee Paul Massey has never won. This is probably one of multiple trophies Rhapsody takes home though I believe it is more deserving for sound editing.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
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Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
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Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone
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First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred latrou Morgan
First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred latrou Morgan
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A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
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Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Who I’d vote for: First Man – While I would be tempted to vote for A Quiet Place (since this is its sole nomination), First Man’s sound design is second to none. The opening scene alone is enough mastery to elicit an Oscar win for sound editing. You feel like you are being blasted into the atmosphere thanks to the incredible work of Chazelle’s sound team. With Whiplash, La La Land and now First Man it is very clear that sound design is the essential glue of his movies.
Who will win: First Man – This could go to Bohemian Rhapsody or even A Quiet Place (my not so secret wish) but I believe the voters will again spread the love and not deny the brilliance of First Man’s sound design. The Academy will also jump at the chance to reward a duel female editing team. It’s a crime First Man was not nominated for Best Picture so perhaps this is a consolation prize.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
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BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
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Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
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The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
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Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
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Vice – Hank Corwin
Who I’d vote for: The Favourite- My top five films for editing in 2018 did not make the Academy’s list this year. They Shall Not Grow Old, First Man and Mission Impossible: Fallout are just of few of the films that should be here instead of some of the nominees. Out of the five nominated films, though, The Favourite is the best film therefore deserves the editing trophy. It had the potential to be a stereotypical stuffy period piece but turned out to be something entirely different due to the adept pacing .
Who will win: Vice – Of the five nominees, Vice has the most “flashy” editing. It seems the voters love the combination of Adam McKay and Hank Corwin’s storytelling styles having previously nominated both men for The Big Short. Corwin is the king of editing polarizing films (Natural Born Killers, Nixon, The Tree of Life). Vice won the BAFTA for Best Editing so I’d put my money on Corwin.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Vice – Hank Corwin
Who I’d vote for: The Favourite- My top five films for editing in 2018 did not make the Academy’s list this year. They Shall Not Grow Old, First Man and Mission Impossible: Fallout are just of few of the films that should be here instead of some of the nominees. Out of the five nominated films, though, The Favourite is the best film therefore deserves the editing trophy. It had the potential to be a stereotypical stuffy period piece but turned out to be something entirely different due to the adept pacing .
Who will win: Vice – Of the five nominees, Vice has the most “flashy” editing. It seems the voters love the combination of Adam McKay and Hank Corwin’s storytelling styles having previously nominated both men for The Big Short. Corwin is the king of editing polarizing films (Natural Born Killers, Nixon, The Tree of Life). Vice won the BAFTA for Best Editing so I’d put my money on Corwin.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
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The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
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Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
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Roma – Alfonso Cuaron
Roma – Alfonso Cuaron
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A Star Is Born – Matty Libatique
A Star Is Born – Matty Libatique
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Cold War – Lukasz Zal
Who I’d vote for: Roma – I haven’t had the fortune of seeing Cold War yet but Roma’s camerawork would be extremely hard to beat. Every shot was choreographed so meticulously that I found myself rewinding to dissect each movement. While I loved the deep reds of A Star Is Born and the skillful use of space in The Favourite, there is no denying the brilliant cinematography of Cuaron’s Roma.
Who will win: Roma– Not a question. Hand it over. Gorgeous black-and-white cinematography is something the Academy has normally lapped up over the more recent years (Schindler’s List, The Artist) since its usage has dwindled to near non-existence. If there happens to be an upset, it would probably be the other black-and-white nominee (Cold War) to do the honors. But expect to see Alfonso Cuaron walk up to the stage several times this Sunday, starting with this award.
Cold War – Lukasz Zal
Who I’d vote for: Roma – I haven’t had the fortune of seeing Cold War yet but Roma’s camerawork would be extremely hard to beat. Every shot was choreographed so meticulously that I found myself rewinding to dissect each movement. While I loved the deep reds of A Star Is Born and the skillful use of space in The Favourite, there is no denying the brilliant cinematography of Cuaron’s Roma.
Who will win: Roma– Not a question. Hand it over. Gorgeous black-and-white cinematography is something the Academy has normally lapped up over the more recent years (Schindler’s List, The Artist) since its usage has dwindled to near non-existence. If there happens to be an upset, it would probably be the other black-and-white nominee (Cold War) to do the honors. But expect to see Alfonso Cuaron walk up to the stage several times this Sunday, starting with this award.
Check out 2019 Oscar Predictions: Part Two - The
Major Awards!
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